Saturday, February 20, 2010

Who are the hardest players to place in mock drafts?

Every off-season, NFL scouts are all over the country finding new talent, and watching old talent. They are looking for that diamond in the rough, the guy that they can draft in the 6th round and turn into a star. Some teams reach for players, while other teams pass on players that seem to be too talented to drop, and for unknown reasons. Most notably, in the 2003 NFL Draft the Cleveland Browns selected a linebacker out of a win-less West Texas A&M school in the 2nd round, despite the fact that he was rated as a 6th-7th round prospect at best. On the flip side, the 2005 NFL Draft featured former Michigan standout Ernest Shazor who some believed would be a 2nd round pick, only to watch him not be drafted and sign as an Un-Drafted Free Agent with the Cardinals. You can see that it's hard to place some players, and each player has their reasoning. So who are the hardest players to place in this year draft?

#10- Brandon Spike-ILB-Florida

Brandon Spikes had a very solid career with the Florida Gators. Prior to the 2009 season, many people had him pegged as a top ten linebacker for the 2010 NFL Draft. Statistically, Spikes didn't have a bad 2009 season after being named a First Team All-American for the 2nd straight season. However, many scouts are wondering just how well he can get off blockers, and if his hips are fluid enough to drop back in coverage, while also being a dominant presence inside the box on defense. On top of that, some character concerns are raised following the Georgia/Florida game, in which he was seen gouging out an opponents eyes. I've seen Spikes go as high as #10 in mock drafts, and as low as #65 in mocks. I have him right in the middle, around the top half of the 2nd round, probably in the 40 range. He is definitely a difficult player to place.

#9- Dexter McCluster-RB/WR-Ole Miss

Dexter McCluster is a talented player, and there's no doubt about it. However, prior to the end of the 2009 season, not much was being said about him until the bowl game, and then the Senior Bowl. Many people had McCluster as a 5th-6th round running back/wide receiver with high upside, but hold his size (5'8 165 pounds) against him. McCluster's speed is elite, and his catching ability is great. However, he's too small to really be an effective #1 or #2 receiver, so he'll have to be a running back? Right? Honestly, I have him as a 2nd round pick with the 3rd round as his floor, mostly because he's a guy that just needs to get touches. He's a utility player who will get the ball whether it's in the slot, the left side of the field, the right side. Whether it's in the air, or whether it's on the ground, he's going to find a team that wants to utilize his speed and cutback ability, along with his great hands.

#8- Jevan Snead-QB-Ole Miss

Jevan Snead is one of the most confusing declarations for the 2010 NFL Draft. After throwing 20 interceptions in 2009, and having a 54.4% completion percentage, Snead decided to forgo his senior season and enter the NFL Draft. What makes Snead such a hard player to place is knowing what kind of talent he has. He's got a very good arm, and while he could work on his accuracy, it's not terrible. So what happened? Was it immaturity? Was it a lack of intangibles? Right now, I have Snead as a 5th-6th round player, but he's a guy that has the talent to go into the 2nd round, as hard as it is for me to say it. Poor decision making can be improved as he gets groomed in the NFL, as well. I've seen some mocks have him as a 3rd rounder and a few having him as a 6th-7th round pick.

#7- Mike Williams-WR-Syracuse

Not many people really know much about Mike Williams, other than that he has the same name as a former Detroit Lion wide receiver who was a bust in the NFL. Mike Williams is one of the most talented players in the draft. Had he been able to play in 2008, and finished the 2009 season, he could easily be a 1st-2nd round draft pick. However, character issues have marked red flags all over him. After finishing 2007 with sixty catches and ten touchdowns, he became suspended for 2008 for theory of academic dishonesty. After coming back in 2009, he played seven games and had 746 yards off of 49 receptions. He left the team in the middle of the season in fear of being suspended. He flat out quit on his team. He was to be suspended for breaking team rules after he was involved in a car accident off the field. Prior to that he was suspended against Akron for undisclosed reasons. It's too hard to pin where this guy could go with owners like Al Davis out there. Some teams want talent and will disregard character issues. However, I think he'll end up in the 4th round strictly based on talent.

#6- Colt McCoy-QB-Texas

Colt McCoy has all the stats that NFL owners love to see. He throws for a very high percentage (70.6% in 2009), and throws quite a few touchdowns. Questions about his footwork, the system he played in at Texas, as well as his throwing motion are big concerns. The killer is the injury he suffered in the National Championship game from Marcel Dareus. McCoy is poised to throw at the combine, but if he can't, then NFL scouts will only be able to judge what he did at Texas and question whether or not they can improve him. If he can throw, and he throws well, he could end up being a late first round pick. If he can't throw, I could see McCoy slipping to the bottom of the 2nd or top of the 3rd round if not later.

#5- Toby Gerhart-RB-Stanford

A heck of a season Gerhart had in 2009, after rushing for 1,871 yards and 28 touchdowns. Right after his bowl game, he started moving into the first round of a lot of mock drafts. It seems some of the talk has cooled, however, and many have him as a 2nd rounder, and I've seen him as low as a 5th round pick. Personally, I have him as a 3rd-4th rounder assuming he runs a 4.58 or lower at the combine. Rumor has it he's been working on his forty time for over a year and that he could run in the 4.4's. However, I'll believe it when I see it. He's powerful, but he's a one dimensional north/south runner who ran behind a mauling Stanford line and behind Owen Marecic, his very underrated fullback. I think Gerhart is talented, but not 2nd round talent. If he runs in the 4.4's, I'll reconsider, and maybe be a little less hard on him.

#4- Jonathan Dwyer-RB-Georgia Tech

Many believed that Dwyer was a top 5 pick over a season ago. His combination of speed and power made him a hot commodity. However, his stock seems to be slipping based on the fact that maybe his speed still isn't good enough. Many people also question his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, and run efficiently outside the tackles. I've seen Dwyer as early as pick number 11, and as far down as a mid-2nd round draft pick. Personally, I think he's right in the middle, probably between New England's pick at 22 and San Diego's pick at 28. I'm one of the few people that think he excelled in a triple offense that limited his abilities, but we'll see.

#3- Terrence Cody-NT-Alabama

Terrence Cody is one of the hardest guys to place in this draft, simply because we don't know what he's fully capable of. Is he strictly a two down nose tackle with weight issues? Or can we believe that he's been working hard after losing 60 pounds prior to 2008? Laziness is commonly associated with Cody, but perhaps we don't know the entire story. Nick Saban wouldn't let him play 3rd downs because of his weight issue, so one would question his drive. One thing we don't have to question is his size and strength. He clearly demands double teams, and can be dominant and very hard to block. But where is his value necessarily? I've seen him as high as #12 overall and as low as the top of the 3rd round. I've got him around pick #42 or so, with potential to move up if he can have some good interviews and have a good combine.

#2- Bryan Bulaga-OT-Iowa

Bulaga is one of the bigger question marks, and it's not because of his talent. It's because of the depth of offensive tackles, and because of his arm length. The combine is going to answer a big question in his arm length. Many have reported that his arms may only be around 33-33.5 inches long, which is just an average at best size. Anybody that knows offensive tackles knows that arm length is an integral part of success. While it's not that you cannot be successful, but it's definitely not ideal. I've seen Bulaga as high as pick #6 overall and as low as the middle of the 2nd round. That's a big jump. Right now, I think that with his talent, drive, and hard work ethic, he's a mid-1st round player, probably around pick 14 or 15.

#1- Tim Tebow-QB-Florida

The hardest player to place in Mock Drafts is easily Tim Tebow. His throwing motion, and footwork is a huge question mark, but his intangibles most certainly are not. You can't help but wonder what NFL team owner doesn't want this guy strictly for ticket sales and leadership ability, but how high is too high to draft for such a big risk? He's a guy that may not even play quarterback in the NFL, and could be suited for a halfback or even tight end. I've seen people who still believe Jacksonville will take him in the first, and personally, I have him as a 2nd, strictly because a team will reach for him. As a quarterback, his talent level is a 4th or 5th rounder. As a football player, his talent is a 2nd rounder. It's too hard to say where this guy is going to go, and he's by far the hardest player to place in mock drafts for 2010.

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Senior Bowl Risers/Fallers

Risers

Offense

Jeremy Williams, WR, Tulane-
Despite not having the ideal size and speed combination, Williams made the most of his Senior Bowl opportunity. Starting with 1 on 1 drills on Tuesday’s first full pads practice, he showed his ability to get in and out of his cuts, and separate from the defensive back. He also showed an excellent ability to come back for the ball, rather than letting it come right to him. Following a solid week of practice, he caught 6 balls for 82 yards, while also having a 27 yard scamper on the ground. Again, because he’s not extremely fast, he could slip into the 3rd round, but he’s a guy that could step into a team right away and get quality playing time.

Dexter McCluster, RB/WR, Ole Miss-
3 carries for -1 yards in the Senior Bowl doesn’t keep me from thinking that McCluster helped his stock immensely this week. He showed more promise in the passing game than anything, pulling a nice double move on Javier Arenas and making a diving catch. Also, on Tuesday he had a great quick slant, in which Arenas was burned. He caught 3 balls for 30 yards in the Senior Bowl, while also having a costly fumble, but the important thing is that he showed his versatility even more. You can put him in the slot, in the backfield, or returning kicks, and he’s going to produce, which is why I think he’s going to be a hot commodity in the 2nd round.

LaGarrette Blount, RB, Oregon-
Blount has had a rough year following the Boise State game. After being suspended for most of the season, Blount came back strong in his last two games, despite getting limited carries, averaging around 6 yards a carry with a pair of touchdowns. This week he showed good vision in practice, and continued that in the game for a 14 yard touchdown that he bounced to the outside. Blount’s character issues may push him down to the 3rd or 4th round, but he could be a steal. Coming in at 245 pounds, he also seemed to be in great shape.

Dan LeFevour, QB, Central Michigan- While I don’t see LeFevour as a 2nd round pick like Corey Chavous, I think he did move up a round, possibly 4th, in the draft. LeFevour really did all he could to make a smooth transition to playing under center, as he ran a shotgun spread offense for 4 years at Central Michigan. He made several nice throws in 7 on 7 drills, a couple in which he squeezed in between defenders. He’s always been able to make plays on his feet, while also throwing on the run, which may make a team covet him a bit more to put him in the bottom of the 3rd round, but most likely middle of the 4th.

Defense


Brandon Graham, DE/OLB, Michigan- Graham just had a great week, and really showed scouts that he wants to be a top 15 draft pick. Despite a lack of ideal size, he embarrassed some of the offensive tackles this week. He showed a great display of power and finesse, which threw the tackles off. He just adjusted to the blockers very well, and knew what moves he needed to put on to get to the QB. He had 2 sacks and a forced fumble in the North defenses dominance of the Senior Bowl. Graham may have pushed his way into the top 20 after this performance.

Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee-
Other than Graham, I can’t think of another defensive lineman that helped themselves more. Williams just proved doubters wrong about him gaining those 15-20 pounds this season, and he played a great Senior Bowl, following an effective week. In double team drills he did a great job of holding the point of attack, and also showed that he can be both a 1 or 2 gap player, making him more versatile. Right now he looks like he could be a dominant NT in either a 34 or a 43. He’s a top 20 pick in this draft.

Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State- What we knew about Wilson was that he was fast. However, he showed an excellent ability to break on the ball and also get physical at the line. His best trait is his breakaway speed. He baits quarterbacks to throw it his way, so that he can jump in for a deflection, if not a pick. He’s very versatile as he can play safety as well as corner, and he was great in one on one’s this week. He also has a lot of value as a kick returner for teams and may have pushed himself into the first round.

Sean Weatherspoon, LB, Missouri-
Weatherspoon is a guy that’s very underrated. Many people have him as a first round pick (albeit a late one), but don’t really know why. The reason why is because he’s a phenomenal athlete who can do it all. He’s a defensive leader and very vocal, and that’s another great trait. One of the best things about Weatherspoon is his ability to cover as a linebacker. The Senior Bowl showed that he also has an uncanny ability to read and react, much like his defensive teammate Daryl Washington, who also excelled for the North defense. Weatherspoon should be a lock for the first round.

Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State-
I really liked what I saw out of Odrick. Being a Big Ten follower, I’ve enjoyed watching Odrick for the last couple of seasons, and he just seems to be getting better. He’s a great space eater because he’s very strong, and he showed that in the double team drills, as well as in the game for the North defense. He was a big reason that the North defense held the talented South running backs to just 30 yards on the ground. There’s no reason why Odrick would slip out of the 1st in any other draft. However, he could make it to the early 2nd because of the depth of DT, among talent in general in this 2010 NFL Draft.

Daryl Washington, LB, TCU- Daryl Washington may be the linebacker that’s going to rise the highest. In the NFL today, you have to be able to excel in coverage being that we’re evolving into a passing football league, and Washington may be the best cover linebacker in the entire draft. Washington’s worries were that he didn’t get off blocks and may not be physical enough due to his size, but he showed nothing but physicality in this one, even making a great tackle off of a nice coverage sack on Tebow. Washington may be able to slip into the first round, assuming he’ll have a good combine, however, size may be of a bit of a concern for some teams.


Fallers

Offense


Tim Tebow, QB, Florida-
Tebow struggled in practice his first day fumbling snaps, and really struggling to get the hang of being underneath a center. In no pressure throwing drills, he struggled to have accuracy when putting zip on the ball. His most accurate passes were lobs going for 15-20 yards. In a few 7 on 7 drills he had a couple tipped balls that appeared to be nowhere near the wide receivers. He’s got a slow throwing motion, and bad footwork, really struggling in 3 and 5 step drops. His touch is another aspect of his game he needs to improve to become a quality quarterback at the next level. He really needs a good amount of work to really prove that he deserves to be higher than a 3rd round draft grade.

Tony Pike, QB, Cincinnati- Pike is a guy that I’ve never been high on. I honestly see him as a Derek Anderson like player, who was bailed out by solid offensive talent, and playing mediocre or worse defenses. Pike has a decent arm, but lacks the touch you need as a QB in the NFL. His footwork is very poor and he’s another shotgun/spread offense quarterback that seemed to struggle a lot under center just like Tim Tebow, unlike his counterpart, Dan LeFevour. Pike should be a 5th round pick, as a developmental guy, with a 4th round ceiling.

Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho- After Mike Mayock hyped Iupati up as a guy that can play all 5 offensive line positions, he sure disappointed. Excelling in the run game, Iupati really showed his weakness in the passing game while playing RG lined up against Geno Atkins. On one drive he should have been called for blatant holds twice. Atkins got the best of him almost every passing play, and he just embarrassed Iupati. However, Iupati played pretty well at offensive tackle, which is confusing because his calling seems to be offensive guard. I think he’s still a first round draft pick, as he is a versatile guy, with long arms who excels in the run game, but if he plays like he did Saturday in the NFL, he could bust easily.

Taylor Price, WR, Ohio- Price just did not have a good week overall. He was consistently getting jammed at the line of scrimmage, rounded off his routes, and dropped a few balls. Despite having a few balls thrown at him, he had 1 catch for 8 yards in the Senior Bowl, and really struggled with getting separation from corners. Lacking top end speed, he really needed to show a display of soft hands and crisp route running, and he failed to do that. He’s still a guy that could go fringe 4th round.

Defense

Taylor Mays, S, USC-
Let it be known that I’ve never been a Mays fan. For 2 seasons, I’ve had people try to convince me how great of a player he is and I just don’t see it. This week didn’t help his cause. Tuesday’s practice was just ugly for him. He won’t be playing corner, so it may be unfair to rate his man coverage, but he grabs all over players when he knows he’s been beat, and he struggles to turn back for the ball. Watching the game, I saw no improvement on wrap up tackling. He had Bell for a 6 yard gain, and instead he just put a shoulder into him, allowing Bell to stay on his feet to pick up 5 more yards. He had a great interception, but that one play doesn’t make up for all of his faults during the week. I think a team is going to grab him in the first simply because he’ll most likely have a great combine, but I think he could easily slip into the 2nd round with guys like Earl Thomas evolving as true play making safeties.

Javier Arenas, CB, Alabama-
Arenas already is a shorter cornerback at 5’8, so he’s already going to shoot down the boards, however, he’s always made up for it in speed. In practices, he just could not cover speed receivers and got in trouble a couple times trying to sit on a WR’s route. He did poorly trying to break on the ball, and while he made a few nice tackles and shows a lot of heart, just doesn’t look like a guy that can make a significant impact in the NFL. I’m saying he ends up a 5th-6th rounder, with a potential bright future as a special teamer.

Brandon Lang, DE/OLB, Troy- One of the most disappointing players for me this week was Lang, who I was a fan of for the last couple seasons. He showed poor burst, and only seems to have one move when pass rushing. He seemed to really struggle against stronger offensive lineman, and had trouble adjusting to the quicker offensive tackles. Lang could be a good later round project for a team, in the mold of Larry English, who got significant playing time this season with San Diego.

Terrence Cody, NT, Alabama- The biggest problem with Cody is the weight he came in at. Showing up to the Senior Bowl at 370 pounds really raised some eyebrows, and not in a good way. Being overweight limits the snaps he’ll get in the NFL, making him less likely to be taken in the first round. Character issues because of potential laziness will be on the back of the scouts’ minds. Cody slips to the middle of the 2nd round, despite being a great run stuffer.

Trevard Lindley, CB, Kentucky- Lindley was one of my personal disappointments. I really thought he’d come in and really show that he can be up there with guys like Kyle Wilson and Perrish Cox. Instead, Lindley failed to be physical at the line, didn’t look back for the ball, and at times gave way too big a cushion for receivers, which got exposed in one on one drills and a few times in 7 on 7’s. For a guy that’s as physical as him, I was surprised to see a lack of push at the line, which is why he’s going to need to have a great combine to get back into the bottom of the 2nd round.